The New Year in Iraq
I've spent my first two weeks in Iraq now. We live in a town north of Tikrit- called Bayji. It's not the best neighborhood so I'm thinking of just renting for a while...:)
Many people in the states ask if Iraq is really the way it sounds in the press. That is a difficult question to answer because everyone has a different perception. So I debated how I would write this first blog from Iraq...and I came up with two very different stories. One would be for effect- and one would be how I perceive the situation here now that I've been here for a very short time. The first story would probably be much more interesting to people- while the second is pretty boring- macroeconomic type statistical data that no one really pays attention to...which is why I think the perception here might be worse than reality. The natural tendency for readers- and therefore the natural tendency for writers wanting to please their audience- is to be drawn to the dramatic story.
I tell my parents that if every day, all I saw here in Iraq on TV was the news from Connecticut...every murder...every rape...every car-jacking...that I'd be terrified for their lives. But the reality is that they are safe in Connecticut. There are millions of people living in Connecticut and the press doesn't even cover every murder- even in the Connecticut press. The public has just gotten used to certain tragedies. It's unfortunately the law of large numbers.
Well, my first story would probably be about Christmas Day. We're sitting at an excellent meal prepared for us by the Army- it really was great- turkey, ham, stuffing, it was phenomenal...my shift for lunch started early, at 11:00 am. Right at noon BOOM...there's a huge explosion outside the mess hall...we all scramble to our feet, grab our helmets...our body armor and our rifles...and get the heck out of the mess hall. After the Mosul attack people are obviously worried about mess halls. Turns out a suicide bomber crashed his car into the front gate of the base and blew himself and his car up. One KIA...the bomber. No one else was hurt. But it scared the hell out of us and we got out of the mess hall in a rush. The gate is about 500 yards from where we were- we were very safe- but it ruined an otherwise very enjoyable meal!
But other than that my stay here has been peaceful. That's why my second story would be about the New Year in Iraq and how I'm very optimistic about it. There are two groups who should know more about the situation here than anyone- the US military and the Iraqi people themselves. Both of these groups have overwhelmingly positive outlooks for the future of Iraq. That might sound like a shocking statement to some people, but it is true.
The majority of soldiers here in Iraq believe in this cause and have a positive outlook on Iraq. We allow the press free access to our soldiers. The polls conducted of soldiers reflect the majority of soldiers are overwhelmingly positive about the future of Iraq. While it is possible to find and highlight some individual soldiers who might believe otherwise, the vast majority are positive.
One reason I think people in the West develop negative attitudes is because there is a tremendous amount of heartache here. People die. We have lost many soldiers and are losing more everyday. There are many tragedies. The insurgency is real and there are foreign fighters streaming in to fight the Great Satan. And these individual stories make it onto the ultimate media tool: the TV. But it is a large country and focusing on individual stories- however tragic, and making them the rule, results in negative attitudes about the entire country that might not be correct.
The future is not only unknown- but unknowable. Anything could happen. An Iraqi civil war could break out- but it is unlikely. If the real feelings and concerns of the average Iraqi were understood by Westerners, it would probably make those Westerners feel better about the situation here. It would be helpful to know what the Iraqi people want.
That is exactly what a recent study tried to do- determine what the Iraqi people want. Recently the Center Strategic and International Studies published a report that consolidated the nineteen major polls conducted of the Iraqi people since the fall of Baghdad by all of the top research firms (Gallup, CNN, etc). The results might help us understand what to expect in the upcoming year in Iraq. This is not just one poll- this is a consolidation of the trends of all the major polls done in the last three years, by all the major sources- of very large sample populations throughout Iraq. While there can be holes poked in the study, there are a lot of potential lessons learned. I'd suggest anyone read it and interpret the data themselves. It can be found at http://www.csis.org/isp/pcr/0411_pollingsupplement.pdf
The polls of the Iraqi population reflect the same positive sentiment as our soldiers: one of an optimistic outlook for the future. 64% of the population believe that Iraq's next year will be better than the previous year vs. 14% who think it will be worse. 60% of Iraqis think even given the post-invasion problems- it was still worth invading to rid them of Saddam Hussein.
The people of the West hope that the elections will allow the Iraqi population to establish a sustainable democracy. 89% of the Iraqi population want a democracy. 87% of the Iraqi population plan to vote.
One of the concerns in the West is that a fundamentalist controlled regime, similar to that of Shiite controlled Iran, could develop in Iraq. The polls suggest the Iraqi people want freedom of religion with 87% wanting religoius groups to share power.
There is concern in the West of a potential Iraqi Civil War. The population of Iraq does not reflect that same concern. Only 14% of the Iraqis think that a Civil War is likely vs. 64% that think it is highly unlikely.
In fact, when asked what is their biggest concern, the average Iraqi did not cite "terrorism" or "the insurgency". The average Iraqi is more concerned with crime. When asked about their number one concern- crime, terrorism or the insurgency, Iraqis chose "crime" four times more than "terrorism" or "the insurgency" combined.
Our "exit strategy" is to help get the democratically elected government running and able to defend itself. One of our major priorities is training the Iraqi police and Iraqi National Guard so that they can defend themselves and their own population. The good news for this strategy is that the Iraqi population has confidence in their police and their Army, with 75% having confidence the Iraqi Army can improve the situation. On the other hand- coalition forces do not believe the Iraqi Army is capable of defending themselves- and that is our task: to train the Iraqis. However, it is probably an easier task to train them- than to have to build the public's confidence in them- which is fortunately high already.
As we begin our second rotation of troops into Iraq, with 135,000 soldiers replacing the 135,000 who are serving there now, the presence of the coalition forces is wearing on the Iraqi people. They increasingly want our soldiers to leave, and that is reflected in the trends in the polls. The majority want us to leave immediately.
There are some very disturbing trends in the beliefs of the Iraqis. The majority of Iraqis now believe that it is "morally acceptable" to attack coalition forces (75% which is up from 38% a year ago). There are other equally disturbing views of coalition forces by the average Iraqi. However, these trends against coalition forces are less important than the direction of the long term future of Iraq itself. Our plan is to leave, and while we wish they would hail us as liberators we don't expect that to happen. The real goal is a stable and democratic Iraq- not a thankful Iraq.
These trends all point in the same direction as the coalition forces are moving: train the Iraqi forces well enough to defend themselves and then withdraw coalition forces.
If this report is correct the Iraqi people:
1. Want a democracy
2. Want a government that allows the freedom to practice any religion
3. Do not expect a civil war
4. Have confidence in their army and their police
5. Are glad that Saddam is gone and feel the invasion to oust him was worth it even given the post-invasion turmoil
6. Want coalition forces to leave
While this year will certainly see its share of setbacks, disappointments and tragedies, let's hope that by the end of the year in 2005, the Iraqi people achieve many of their hopes and dreams.
Many people in the states ask if Iraq is really the way it sounds in the press. That is a difficult question to answer because everyone has a different perception. So I debated how I would write this first blog from Iraq...and I came up with two very different stories. One would be for effect- and one would be how I perceive the situation here now that I've been here for a very short time. The first story would probably be much more interesting to people- while the second is pretty boring- macroeconomic type statistical data that no one really pays attention to...which is why I think the perception here might be worse than reality. The natural tendency for readers- and therefore the natural tendency for writers wanting to please their audience- is to be drawn to the dramatic story.
I tell my parents that if every day, all I saw here in Iraq on TV was the news from Connecticut...every murder...every rape...every car-jacking...that I'd be terrified for their lives. But the reality is that they are safe in Connecticut. There are millions of people living in Connecticut and the press doesn't even cover every murder- even in the Connecticut press. The public has just gotten used to certain tragedies. It's unfortunately the law of large numbers.
Well, my first story would probably be about Christmas Day. We're sitting at an excellent meal prepared for us by the Army- it really was great- turkey, ham, stuffing, it was phenomenal...my shift for lunch started early, at 11:00 am. Right at noon BOOM...there's a huge explosion outside the mess hall...we all scramble to our feet, grab our helmets...our body armor and our rifles...and get the heck out of the mess hall. After the Mosul attack people are obviously worried about mess halls. Turns out a suicide bomber crashed his car into the front gate of the base and blew himself and his car up. One KIA...the bomber. No one else was hurt. But it scared the hell out of us and we got out of the mess hall in a rush. The gate is about 500 yards from where we were- we were very safe- but it ruined an otherwise very enjoyable meal!
But other than that my stay here has been peaceful. That's why my second story would be about the New Year in Iraq and how I'm very optimistic about it. There are two groups who should know more about the situation here than anyone- the US military and the Iraqi people themselves. Both of these groups have overwhelmingly positive outlooks for the future of Iraq. That might sound like a shocking statement to some people, but it is true.
The majority of soldiers here in Iraq believe in this cause and have a positive outlook on Iraq. We allow the press free access to our soldiers. The polls conducted of soldiers reflect the majority of soldiers are overwhelmingly positive about the future of Iraq. While it is possible to find and highlight some individual soldiers who might believe otherwise, the vast majority are positive.
One reason I think people in the West develop negative attitudes is because there is a tremendous amount of heartache here. People die. We have lost many soldiers and are losing more everyday. There are many tragedies. The insurgency is real and there are foreign fighters streaming in to fight the Great Satan. And these individual stories make it onto the ultimate media tool: the TV. But it is a large country and focusing on individual stories- however tragic, and making them the rule, results in negative attitudes about the entire country that might not be correct.
The future is not only unknown- but unknowable. Anything could happen. An Iraqi civil war could break out- but it is unlikely. If the real feelings and concerns of the average Iraqi were understood by Westerners, it would probably make those Westerners feel better about the situation here. It would be helpful to know what the Iraqi people want.
That is exactly what a recent study tried to do- determine what the Iraqi people want. Recently the Center Strategic and International Studies published a report that consolidated the nineteen major polls conducted of the Iraqi people since the fall of Baghdad by all of the top research firms (Gallup, CNN, etc). The results might help us understand what to expect in the upcoming year in Iraq. This is not just one poll- this is a consolidation of the trends of all the major polls done in the last three years, by all the major sources- of very large sample populations throughout Iraq. While there can be holes poked in the study, there are a lot of potential lessons learned. I'd suggest anyone read it and interpret the data themselves. It can be found at http://www.csis.org/isp/pcr/0411_pollingsupplement.pdf
The polls of the Iraqi population reflect the same positive sentiment as our soldiers: one of an optimistic outlook for the future. 64% of the population believe that Iraq's next year will be better than the previous year vs. 14% who think it will be worse. 60% of Iraqis think even given the post-invasion problems- it was still worth invading to rid them of Saddam Hussein.
The people of the West hope that the elections will allow the Iraqi population to establish a sustainable democracy. 89% of the Iraqi population want a democracy. 87% of the Iraqi population plan to vote.
One of the concerns in the West is that a fundamentalist controlled regime, similar to that of Shiite controlled Iran, could develop in Iraq. The polls suggest the Iraqi people want freedom of religion with 87% wanting religoius groups to share power.
There is concern in the West of a potential Iraqi Civil War. The population of Iraq does not reflect that same concern. Only 14% of the Iraqis think that a Civil War is likely vs. 64% that think it is highly unlikely.
In fact, when asked what is their biggest concern, the average Iraqi did not cite "terrorism" or "the insurgency". The average Iraqi is more concerned with crime. When asked about their number one concern- crime, terrorism or the insurgency, Iraqis chose "crime" four times more than "terrorism" or "the insurgency" combined.
Our "exit strategy" is to help get the democratically elected government running and able to defend itself. One of our major priorities is training the Iraqi police and Iraqi National Guard so that they can defend themselves and their own population. The good news for this strategy is that the Iraqi population has confidence in their police and their Army, with 75% having confidence the Iraqi Army can improve the situation. On the other hand- coalition forces do not believe the Iraqi Army is capable of defending themselves- and that is our task: to train the Iraqis. However, it is probably an easier task to train them- than to have to build the public's confidence in them- which is fortunately high already.
As we begin our second rotation of troops into Iraq, with 135,000 soldiers replacing the 135,000 who are serving there now, the presence of the coalition forces is wearing on the Iraqi people. They increasingly want our soldiers to leave, and that is reflected in the trends in the polls. The majority want us to leave immediately.
There are some very disturbing trends in the beliefs of the Iraqis. The majority of Iraqis now believe that it is "morally acceptable" to attack coalition forces (75% which is up from 38% a year ago). There are other equally disturbing views of coalition forces by the average Iraqi. However, these trends against coalition forces are less important than the direction of the long term future of Iraq itself. Our plan is to leave, and while we wish they would hail us as liberators we don't expect that to happen. The real goal is a stable and democratic Iraq- not a thankful Iraq.
These trends all point in the same direction as the coalition forces are moving: train the Iraqi forces well enough to defend themselves and then withdraw coalition forces.
If this report is correct the Iraqi people:
1. Want a democracy
2. Want a government that allows the freedom to practice any religion
3. Do not expect a civil war
4. Have confidence in their army and their police
5. Are glad that Saddam is gone and feel the invasion to oust him was worth it even given the post-invasion turmoil
6. Want coalition forces to leave
While this year will certainly see its share of setbacks, disappointments and tragedies, let's hope that by the end of the year in 2005, the Iraqi people achieve many of their hopes and dreams.
posted by Dan at 1:51 PM
<< Home