Fighting World War IV: "It's the Economy Stupid"
I received very positive feedback from the blog on 23 October 2004 on which I posted the narrative of a speech by former Secretary of the Navy John Lehman entitled "Our enemy is not Terrorism". In it he claims that we are not at war with "terrorism" but rather with "Radical Islam". He goes further to claim that this is a World War that has been underway for decades, citing the attacks against the West which began with the bombing of the Marine barracks in Beruit in 1982.
Actually if we consider this war a World War, then this would make the War against Radical Islam World War IV. World War I was fought between 1914 and 1918. Over 30 million were killed. World War II was fought between 1939 and 1945. Over 50 million were killed.
Many people think of the Cold War as a “bloodless war” in which no shots were fired. Actually, the Third World War was the World War Against Communism- and it was far from bloodless.
The seeds to World War III were sown in the Russian Revolution of 1917 but remained dormant until 1945. World War III began as soon as the Allies defeated the Germans. The war against communism continues today (with the West against communism in China, Vietnam, N.Korea, Cuba, etc.) Since the US and USSR never fought directly it has been said that there were no “shots fired.” In fact up to 70 million people have died already in the struggle against communism. Around 30 million Soviets died in the Soviet Union and it's satellites under the oppression of Comrade Stalin. Another 30 million Chinese died or were killed under the forced famines and oppression of Chairman Mao during his “Great Leap Forward.” The Superpowers of the US and USSR never fought directly, but rather on the periphery- in countries such as Korea, Vietnam, throughout Eastern Europe, El Salvador, Afghanistan, Cuba, and all the other peripheral countries where the West fought Communism. The US and USSR each spent trillions of dollars on the arms build up which inevitably is credited with causing the collapse of the Soviet Union and freed hundreds of millions from beneath the yoke of Communism. The exact number of lives lost and the trillions spent is debatable, but it was obviously many millions of lives and many trillions of dollars.
World War IV: “The War Against Radical Islam” is certainly a global battle. It began in the early 1980s and will likely last for many years. The enemy has been fighting this war against us for twenty-five years- we just didn’t know it. They have been building up their forces and dispersing them geographically around the world. The enemy seeks complete destruction of the United States and death to our citizens. Given modern weapons systems, this is a possible outcome.
WWIV has the potential to have massive casualties similar in numbers to the first three World Wars. Today the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction; an enemy intent on the destruction of the United States; hundreds of millions of people in the Middle East in poverty being rallied by religious clerics who blame all the ills of the poor on the West instead of on their totalitarian rulers; leaders of rogue nation's stoking the fires and financing these terrorists; and globalization- all create the potential for World War IV to be equally as catastrophic as the first three World Wars in a much shorter timeframe.
In American lives we have lost around 800,000 lives in the four World Wars: World War I (300,000); World War II (400,000); World War III (95,000- Korea/Vietnam); and World War IV (6,000). The cost of World War IV thus far has been considerably less, thankfully, in comparison. Thus far we have lost an estimated 6,000 from Beirut, Africa, New York, Washington DC, Afghanistan and Iraq among some of the locations we have fought Radical Islam. But this war may have just begun and our casualties could increase exponentially in a matter of days.
Fortunately, during the past world wars we were able to keep the wars far from our shores and therefore we suffered a small fraction of the total casualties, usually less than 1% of the total casualties of each World War (1% WWI, .8% WWII, .8% WWII). However, we spent the majority of the resources. In WWII, we spent 30% of all costs of the war but lost only 8/10ths of a percentage of the dead. In World War III we probably spent over half of the dollars but lost 90,000 out of 70 million.
Unfortunately WWIV has already reached our shores and could again reach our shores.
We must assume that we are again going to bear the brunt of the financial cost of WWIV. We alone will be responsible for investing in the economic development of the Middle East.
The entire Middle East is a quagmire of failed states. The Middle East is surpassed only by Sub-Saharan Africa in its pitiful economic growth throughout the 20th Century. These oil rich states have been run by corrupt totalitarian rulers who have milked their countries wealth and oppressed their own people. They conveniently stir up the masses with clerics who blame the West for all the ills of the poor. Hundreds of millions of people live in poverty while their leaders live in luxury. Hundreds of millions have no hope. In the long run we need to do more than promote democracy. We need to dedicate considerable resources to promote democracy.
While we would love to see this problem go away in months or years, realistically this is the challenge of our generation and it will not be resolved for at least a generation. We helped free Western Europe in World War II. We helped free Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union in World War III. We need to help free the Middle East in World War IV. The Evil Genie (radical Islam) is out of the bottle and being spread throughout the Middle East amongst oppressed people with no hope. If only a fraction of these Islamic populations believe in this radical Islam…we are indeed in deep trouble.
We have yet to dedicate a fraction of the national resources we dedicated to World War I, II or III. Thus far we have spent is roughly about one week’s worth of American GDP (which equates to $200 billion) on this war. This is a fraction of the resources we have dedicated towards the past world wars. In World War II we spent approximately 80 weeks' worth of GDP.
World Wars are won with resources. We could not have won any of the World Wars without the soldier who is willing to fight and die if necessary. But a soldier without food, weapons, and and/or training is also useless. A conquered or liberated country will not stay free or will not be productive without re-building. We could not have helped win World Wars I, II or III without brave soldiers. But one of the major factors in winning World Wars I, II and III was because the United States could out produce every country on earth. American productivity is our most lethal weapon and always has been. That weapon is useless unless is it brought to bear with the full commitment of the American public.
Thus far we have spent roughly one week's GDP, or salary of the US, on this war.
Until we decide to spend more than a week’s salary on this war, we will merely be allowing the pot to boil over in the Middle East. The War will not be won until we commit the resources to win decisively.
Today in 2004, there are now four major democratic countries in the Middle East: Turkey, Israel, Afghanistan and as of January 2005: Iraq. We need to do everything within our power to ensure these democracies survive and become examples for all the Middle East. This is a World War and we need to treat this like a World War economically. Thus far we have not done enough financially.
President Clinton made the remark during the 1992 Presidential campaign "It's the Economy Stupid" to explain the key to the election that he eventually won. In World Wars, like in Presidential elections, the economy is often the determining factor. It will be the winning factor during World War IV when we finally dedicate ourselves to winning it. We need to free the people of the Middle East and help them build sustainable economies. The key to winning this war is the economy, stupid. :)
Dan
Actually if we consider this war a World War, then this would make the War against Radical Islam World War IV. World War I was fought between 1914 and 1918. Over 30 million were killed. World War II was fought between 1939 and 1945. Over 50 million were killed.
Many people think of the Cold War as a “bloodless war” in which no shots were fired. Actually, the Third World War was the World War Against Communism- and it was far from bloodless.
The seeds to World War III were sown in the Russian Revolution of 1917 but remained dormant until 1945. World War III began as soon as the Allies defeated the Germans. The war against communism continues today (with the West against communism in China, Vietnam, N.Korea, Cuba, etc.) Since the US and USSR never fought directly it has been said that there were no “shots fired.” In fact up to 70 million people have died already in the struggle against communism. Around 30 million Soviets died in the Soviet Union and it's satellites under the oppression of Comrade Stalin. Another 30 million Chinese died or were killed under the forced famines and oppression of Chairman Mao during his “Great Leap Forward.” The Superpowers of the US and USSR never fought directly, but rather on the periphery- in countries such as Korea, Vietnam, throughout Eastern Europe, El Salvador, Afghanistan, Cuba, and all the other peripheral countries where the West fought Communism. The US and USSR each spent trillions of dollars on the arms build up which inevitably is credited with causing the collapse of the Soviet Union and freed hundreds of millions from beneath the yoke of Communism. The exact number of lives lost and the trillions spent is debatable, but it was obviously many millions of lives and many trillions of dollars.
World War IV: “The War Against Radical Islam” is certainly a global battle. It began in the early 1980s and will likely last for many years. The enemy has been fighting this war against us for twenty-five years- we just didn’t know it. They have been building up their forces and dispersing them geographically around the world. The enemy seeks complete destruction of the United States and death to our citizens. Given modern weapons systems, this is a possible outcome.
WWIV has the potential to have massive casualties similar in numbers to the first three World Wars. Today the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction; an enemy intent on the destruction of the United States; hundreds of millions of people in the Middle East in poverty being rallied by religious clerics who blame all the ills of the poor on the West instead of on their totalitarian rulers; leaders of rogue nation's stoking the fires and financing these terrorists; and globalization- all create the potential for World War IV to be equally as catastrophic as the first three World Wars in a much shorter timeframe.
In American lives we have lost around 800,000 lives in the four World Wars: World War I (300,000); World War II (400,000); World War III (95,000- Korea/Vietnam); and World War IV (6,000). The cost of World War IV thus far has been considerably less, thankfully, in comparison. Thus far we have lost an estimated 6,000 from Beirut, Africa, New York, Washington DC, Afghanistan and Iraq among some of the locations we have fought Radical Islam. But this war may have just begun and our casualties could increase exponentially in a matter of days.
Fortunately, during the past world wars we were able to keep the wars far from our shores and therefore we suffered a small fraction of the total casualties, usually less than 1% of the total casualties of each World War (1% WWI, .8% WWII, .8% WWII). However, we spent the majority of the resources. In WWII, we spent 30% of all costs of the war but lost only 8/10ths of a percentage of the dead. In World War III we probably spent over half of the dollars but lost 90,000 out of 70 million.
Unfortunately WWIV has already reached our shores and could again reach our shores.
We must assume that we are again going to bear the brunt of the financial cost of WWIV. We alone will be responsible for investing in the economic development of the Middle East.
The entire Middle East is a quagmire of failed states. The Middle East is surpassed only by Sub-Saharan Africa in its pitiful economic growth throughout the 20th Century. These oil rich states have been run by corrupt totalitarian rulers who have milked their countries wealth and oppressed their own people. They conveniently stir up the masses with clerics who blame the West for all the ills of the poor. Hundreds of millions of people live in poverty while their leaders live in luxury. Hundreds of millions have no hope. In the long run we need to do more than promote democracy. We need to dedicate considerable resources to promote democracy.
While we would love to see this problem go away in months or years, realistically this is the challenge of our generation and it will not be resolved for at least a generation. We helped free Western Europe in World War II. We helped free Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union in World War III. We need to help free the Middle East in World War IV. The Evil Genie (radical Islam) is out of the bottle and being spread throughout the Middle East amongst oppressed people with no hope. If only a fraction of these Islamic populations believe in this radical Islam…we are indeed in deep trouble.
We have yet to dedicate a fraction of the national resources we dedicated to World War I, II or III. Thus far we have spent is roughly about one week’s worth of American GDP (which equates to $200 billion) on this war. This is a fraction of the resources we have dedicated towards the past world wars. In World War II we spent approximately 80 weeks' worth of GDP.
World Wars are won with resources. We could not have won any of the World Wars without the soldier who is willing to fight and die if necessary. But a soldier without food, weapons, and and/or training is also useless. A conquered or liberated country will not stay free or will not be productive without re-building. We could not have helped win World Wars I, II or III without brave soldiers. But one of the major factors in winning World Wars I, II and III was because the United States could out produce every country on earth. American productivity is our most lethal weapon and always has been. That weapon is useless unless is it brought to bear with the full commitment of the American public.
Thus far we have spent roughly one week's GDP, or salary of the US, on this war.
Until we decide to spend more than a week’s salary on this war, we will merely be allowing the pot to boil over in the Middle East. The War will not be won until we commit the resources to win decisively.
Today in 2004, there are now four major democratic countries in the Middle East: Turkey, Israel, Afghanistan and as of January 2005: Iraq. We need to do everything within our power to ensure these democracies survive and become examples for all the Middle East. This is a World War and we need to treat this like a World War economically. Thus far we have not done enough financially.
President Clinton made the remark during the 1992 Presidential campaign "It's the Economy Stupid" to explain the key to the election that he eventually won. In World Wars, like in Presidential elections, the economy is often the determining factor. It will be the winning factor during World War IV when we finally dedicate ourselves to winning it. We need to free the people of the Middle East and help them build sustainable economies. The key to winning this war is the economy, stupid. :)
Dan
posted by Dan at 5:56 AM
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